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Distribution Development Plan

2009-2018

Electric Power Industry Management Bureau Department of Energy  

September 2010 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

Page 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

1. 2009 Distribution Development Plan 

1.1 INTRODUCTION 1 

1.2 HIGHLIGHTS OF 2009 DDP 1 

1.3 COMPARATIVE DDP (2008 DDP vis-à-vis 2009 DDP) 8 

2. SUMMARY TABLES 

Table 1. DDP submission rate of DUs 1 

Table 2. Total Number of Customers 2008-2018 9 

Table 3. Luzon DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2009-2018 10 

Table 4. Visayas DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2009-2018 11 

Table 5. Mindanao DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2009-2018 12 

Table 6. Projected Infrastructure Requirements 2009-2018 13 

Table 7. Projected Capital Investment Requirements (Million Pesos) 2009-2018 14 

3. Annexes 

Annex 1 LUZON DUs DISTRIBUTION DEVELOPMENT PLAN 

Annex 1A Vicinity Map of Luzon Distribution Utilities 16

Annex 1B  One-Page DDP Summary Annex 1C  Luzon PIOUs and LGUOUs 17

Annex 1D Luzon ECs 28 

Annex 2 VISAYAS DUs DISTRIBUTION DEVELOPMENT PLAN 

Annex 2A Vicinity Map of Visayas Distribution Utilities 88

Annex 2B  One-Page DDP Summary Annex 2C  Visayas PIOUs and LGUOUs 89 A

nnex 2D Visayas ECs 94 

Annex 3 MINDANAO DUs DISTRIBUTION DEVELOPMENT PLAN 

Annex 3A Vicinity Map of Mindanao Distribution Utilities 129

Annex 3B  One-Page DDP Summary Annex 3C  Mindanao PIOUs and LGUOUs 130

Annex 3D Mindanao ECs 135 

Annex 4 List of Distribution Utilities in the Philippines 173 

LIST OF TABLES 

Page 

TABLE 1 2009 DDP Submission Rate 1 TABLE 2 Total Number of Customers 2008-2018 9 TABLE 3 Luzon DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2009-2018 10 TABLE 4 Visayas DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2009-2018 11 TABLE 5 Mindanao DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2009-2018 12 TABLE 6 Projected Infrastructure Requirements 2009-2018 13 TABLE 7 Projected Capital Investment Requirements 2009-2018 14 

LIST OF FIGURES 

FIGURE 1 DUs Number of Customers ( x 1000) 2008-2018 1 FIGURE 2 Luzon: Growth Rate of number of Customers and Energy Sales 2 FIGURE 3 Visayas: Growth Rate of number of Customers and Energy Sales 2 FIGURE 4 Mindanao: Growth rate of number of Customers and Energy Sales 3 FIGURE 5 Peak Demand per Grid (MW) 2004-2018 4 FIGURE 6 Luzon DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2004-2018 4 FIGURE 7 Visayas DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2004-2018 5 FIGURE 8 Mindanao DUs Peak Demand (MW) 2004-2018 5 FIGURE 9 DUs Energy Purchased/Generated per Grid (GWh) 2004-2018 6 FIGURE 10 Expansion and Rehabilitation (ckt-km) 2009-2018 7 FIGURE 11 Total Substation Capacity Addition (MVA) 2009-2018 7 FIGURE 12 Capital Expenditure Requirement (PhP B) 2009-2018 7 

ANNEXES 

Annex 1C Luzon PIOUs and LGUOUs One-Page DDP Summary 17 Annex 1D   Luzon ECs One-Page DDP Summary 28 Annex 2C Visayas PIOUs and LGUOUs One-Page DDP Summary 89 Annex 2D   Visayas ECs One-Page DDP Summary 94 Annex 3C Mindanao PIOUs and LGUOUs One-Page DDP Summary 130 Annex 3D  Mindanao ECs One-Page DDP Summary 135 Annex 4   List of Distribution Utilities in the Philippines 173 

Executive Summary 

In the planning period 2009-2018, the Distribution Utilities (DUs) expect an increase in peak demand of 4,006 MW from 8,529 MW in 2009 to 12,535 MW in 2018, representing an average growth of 3.9% annually. Luzon is projected to have a 3.7% annual average growth rate in peak demand, from 6,357 MW in 2009 to 9,051 MW in 2018. Visayas and Mindanao will have a higher growth rate at 4.8% and 4.6%, respectively from 1,167 MW in 2009 to 1,735 MW in 2018 for Visayas, and from 1,214 MW in 2009 to 1,750 MW in 2018 for Mindanao. 

In terms of energy requirement, DUs in Luzon is projected to grow at an annual average growth rate of 4.0% over the ten-year planning period, from 37,884 GWh in 2009 to 55,588 GWh in 2018. Visayas DUs is seen to register an annual average growth rate of 4.5%, from 6,020 GWh in 2009 to 8,886 GWh in 2018, Mindanao DUs will register a 4.6% annual average growth rate, from 6,726 GWh in 2009 to 9,762 GWh in 2018. 

DUs are projecting a substantial increase in the number of customers in 2018: Luzon at 11.366 million; Visayas at 3.622 million; and Mindanao at 3.133 million. These translate to an annual average growth rates of 4.1% in Luzon, 4.5% in Visayas, and 5.0% in Mindanao in energy sales, respectively. 

To meet the projected increase in energy requirements over the planning horizon, an estimated 24,424 ckt-km of lines are programmed for rehabilitation and/or upgrading, 14,842 ckt-km of lines are for construction, and an additional 5,735 MVA substation capacity will be constructed. These will have corresponding investment requirements amounting to PhP70.9 billion, broken down into: PhP21.2 billion for electrification projects, PhP20.6 billion for construction of new lines, PhP8.0 billion for additional substation capacity, and Php21.1 billion for rehabilitation of distribution lines. 

2009 Distribution Development Plan 

Introduction 

The Department of Energy (DOE) publishes annually the Distribution Development Plan (DDP) of all distribution utilities (DUs) in the country. The DOE consolidates into the national DDP the individual DDPs of DUs: the Private Investor-Owned Utilities (PIOUs), Local Government Unit-Owned Utilities (LGUOUs), Multi-purpose Cooperatives, and the Electric Cooperatives (ECs) as endorsed by the National Electrification Administration (NEA). 

The annual submission and preparation of the DDP is in compliance with Republic Act No. 9136 and is prescribed by the DOE Department Circular No. 2004-02-002. 

TABLE 1. DDP Submission Rate of DUs 

The DDP covers the DUs¹ 10-year program on acquisition of subtransmission assets, expansion and rehabilitation of distribution facilities and the costs associated to these activities in order to deliver the electric power services to the projected number of customers, and their corresponding energy and demand requirements.  

* includes Subic Enerzone Corporation 

The 2009 DDP contains the individual DDPs of 133 DUs (Table 1). 

Highlights of the 2009 DDP 

Number of Customers and Sales 

In 2008, DUs provided electricity services to at least 12.866 million customers. Over the 2009-2018 planning period, the DUs are expecting a 3.7% increase in the number of customers in 2009, 3.5% in 2013 and 3.5% in 2018² (Figure 1). The DUs in Luzon are projecting that their customers will reach 11.366 million in 2018 whereas DUs in the Visayas and Mindanao will have to expand their services to 3.622 million and 3.134 million customers, respectively by 2018 (Table 2). 

Figure 1. DUs Number of Customers, 2008-2018 

Note: 2008 Figures are actual. 

¹ A total of 12 DUs did not submit its 2009 DDPs. These DUs are: Luzon DUs; PUD, Corcuera Electric System, Banton Electric System, Concepcion Electric System, ABRECO, PELCO III, PALECO, and SORECO II; Visayas DUs; Hilabaan Multipurpose Coop., Maripipi Multipurpose Coop., Mindanao DUs; Bumburan Electric Light System and CASELCO. ² Figures from DUs with 2009 DDP submission only. 

Over the planning period, Luzon PIOUs and LGUOUs are projecting an increase of 1.9% in their number of customers whereas Luzon ECs project a 4.4% increase in its customers.  

The projected growth rate of 3.0% in the total number of customers in the Luzon grid, from 8.699 million customers in 2009 to 11.389 million customers in 2018, will have a corresponding increase in energy sales of 4.1%, with a estimated energy sales of 33,697 GWh in 2009 to 50,026 GWh in 2018 (Figure 2). 

Figure 2. Luzon Energy Sales - Number of Customers 

Note: 2008 Figures are actual. 

In 2008, residential customers of Luzon PIOUs/LGUOUs and ECs account to approximately 53% and 37% respectively of Luzon’s total number of customers. Over the planning period, residential customers of Luzon PIOUs/LGUOUs will comprise of 48% of Luzon DUs total customers and around 43% will be that of ECs. PIOUs / LGUOUs customers will be in average 90% residential, while for the ECs an average of 93% are residential customers. 

In the Visayas, PIOUs are expecting an increase of 2.7% in their number of customers while the ECs project an increase of 4.6% in its customers. 

Figure 3. Visayas Energy Sales - Number of Customers 

Note: 2008 Figures are actual.  

In 2008, of the total number of DU customers in the Visayas region, 71% are residential customers of ECs and 18% are PIOU customers. Over the planning period, 78% of ECs customers will be residential while 13% for PIOUs customers. Approximately 91% in the Visayas region will be residential customers. 

A growth rate in energy sales of 4.52% is projected in the Visayas Grid, from 5,399 GWh in 2009 to 7,980 GWh in 2018. This is in comparison with the 4.6% expected growth rate in the number of customers over the planning period from 2.419 Million customers in 2009 to 3.622 million customers in 2018 (Figure 3). 

In Mindanao, PIOUs are projecting an increase of 3.5% in their number of customers while the ECs project an increase of 4.0% in its customers. In total, it is estimated that there will be 3.134 million customers in 2018 from 2.223 million customers in 2008. This is equivalent to a growth rate of 4.0%. 

Note: 2008 Figures are actual. 

With this increase in the number of customer, Mindanao DUs expect an equivalent growth rate in energy sales over the planning period by an average growth rate of 4.9%, from 5,935 GWh in 2009 to 8,833 GWh in 2018 (Figure 4). 

Approximately 87% of Mindanao DUs were residential customer in the year 2008. This percentage will relatively not change over the planning period. Of the total customers of Mindanao DUs, 17% are residential customers of PIOUs while 72% are residential customers of ECs. 

Demand Requirement 

Figure 5. Peak Demand per Grid (MW), 2004-2018 

Note: Figures include data from 2008 and 2007 DDP. Please see Table 3. 

In the planning period, 2009–2018, the DUs total peak demand³, which stood at 8,529 MW in 2008, is expected to grow annually at an average rate of 3.9% (Figure 5). Luzon’s peak demand is estimated to increase annually at an average of 3.7%, with demand reaching 6,357 MW in 2009 and 9,051 MW in 2018 (Figure 6). In the Visayas, DUs demand is estimated to peak at 1,167 MW in 2009 and 1,750 MW in 2018, equivalent to an annual average growth rate of 4.8% over the planning period. In Mindanao, DUs are projecting an annual average rate of 4.6% increase in peak demand, from 1,214 MW in 2009 to 1,750 MW in 2018. 

Note: Figures include data from 2008 and 2007 DDP. Please see Table 3. 

Luzon PIOUs and LGUOUs peak demand will increase annually at an average of 3.3%, with demand reaching 5,130 MW in 2009 and 9,505 MW in 2017 (Table 3). Meralco will have an average increase in demand of 3.2 % with demand of 4,757 MW in 2009 and 6,582 MW in 2018 while the rest of the PIOUs and LGUOUs will have an accumulated demand of 373 MW in 2009 and 532 in 2018 equivalent to an average increase in growth of 3.9 %. ECs estimate an annual average increase of 5.2% at 1,227 MW in 2009 to 1939 MW in 2018 (Figure 6).  

Meralco’s peak demand of 4,790 MW in CY2008 accounted for 71.77 % of Luzon’s Peak Demand of 6,674 MW⁴ for that year. 

³ Peak Demand indicated is non-coincident peak. ⁴ National Grid Corporation of the Philippines data  

Visayas PIOUs peak demand will increase at an average of 4.0% annually, with demand reaching 507 MW in 2009, 592 MW in 2013 and further to 679 MW in 2018 while Visayas ECs are expected to increase by an annual average rate of 5.3% (Figure 7). 

On a per island basis, DUs in Leyte-Samar expect an increase of 5.9 % in peak demand from 141 MW in 2009 to 236 MW in 2018, Cebu DUs, including Mactan’s, sees demand to increase from 508 MW in 2009 to 700 MW in 2018, equivalent to an annual average growth rate of 4.3 % (Table 4). Bohol DUs expect an increase of 6.8 % average growth rate. DUs in Negros projected an accumulative 4.11 % average growth in demand with demand expected to be 229 MW in 2009 increasing to 336 MW in 2018. The eight DUs in Panay, expected demand to be 228 MW in 2009 and increase to 343 MW in 2018 representing an equivalent increase of 4.8 %. 

VECO’s peak demand of 326 MW in CY2008 accounted for 27.72 % of Visayas’s Peak Demand of 1,176 MW⁵ for that year. 

Mindanao PIOUs have projected to have an annual increase of an average rate of 3.5% in peak demand, with demand reaching 465 MW in 2009 and 607 MW in 2018 (Table 5). DLPC sees its demand to increase from 268 MW in 2009 to 358 MW 2018, equivalent to an average increase of 

3.7 % while the rest of the PIOUs will have an accumulated demand of 197 MW in 2009 and 249 MW in 2018 equivalent to an average increase in growth of 3.2 %. ECs expected a higher increase in peak demand at an average rate of 5.3% annually, bringing peak demand from 749 MW in 2009 to 1,750 MW in 2018 (Figure 8).  

⁵ National Grid Corporation of the Philippines data 

DLPC’s peak demand of 249 MW in CY2008 accounted for 20.68 % of Mindanao’s Peak Demand of 1,204 MW⁶ for that year. 

Overall, DUs anticipate an increase of 3,973 MW in peak demand over the planning horizon, 2,728 MW in Luzon, 611 MW in Visayas, and 634 MW in Mindanao. 

PANELCO I and BOHECO I expect an increase in their peak demand due to expected construction on airport’s in their respective franchise areas. 

Energy Requirement 

DUs will require 50,631 GWh in 2009, 59,414 GWh in 2013 and 74,236 GWh in 2018⁷ (Figure 9). An annual average growth rate of 4.0% in the energy requirements of Luzon is projected over the ten-year planning period, from 37,884 GWh in 2009 to 55,588 GWh in 2018. Visayas is seen to register an annual average growth rate of 4.5%, from 6,020 GWh in 2009 to 8,886 GWh in 2018, whereas Mindanao will register a 4.6% annual average growth rate, from 6,726 GWh in 2009 to 9,762 GWh in 2018.  

Figure 9. DUs ENERGY PUR/GEN PER GRID (GWH), 2004-2018 

Luzon’s PIOUs and LGUOUs energy requirement will increase at an average of 3.7% annually, from 31,635 GWh in 2009 to 45,336 GWh in 2018, while Luzon ECs are expecting an increase of 5.6% annually from 6,249 GWh in 200 to 10,250 GWh in 2018. 

Visayas PIOUs energy requirements will grow at an average of 3.1% annually, from 2,755 GWh in 2009 to 3,654 GWh in 2018, while that of Visayas ECs will rise by 5.5% from 3,265 GWh in 2009 to 5,232 GWh in 2018.  

The Cebu sub-grid energy requirement will be at 2,766 GWh in 2009 and 3,721 GWh by 2018, representing a 3.4 % annual average growth rate. Negros and Panay sub-grids will have an average growth rate of 4.6 % and 4.9% respectively, with energy requirement of 1,150 GWh in 2009 and 1,729 GWh in 2018 for Negros and 1,107 GWh in 2009 and 1,671 GWh in 2018 for Panay. 

Mindanao PIOUs energy requirement will increase at an average of 3.4% annually, 2,693 GWh in 2009 and 3,527 GWh in 2018, while their EC counterparts see a growth of 5.4%, 4,033 GWh in 2009 and 6,235 GWh in 2018.  

⁶ National Grid Corporation of the Philippines data ⁷ In the case of DUs without 2009 DDP submission (footnote 1), data from their respective 2008 and 2007 DDP are used.  

Overall, DUs sees an increase of 24,575 GWh in energy requirement over the planning horizon, 18, 052 GWh in Luzon, 3,139 GWh in Visayas, and 3,538 GWh in Mindanao. 

Infrastructure and Capital Requirements 

In order to provide quality, secure, and reliable power, about 24,424 ckt-km of lines are programmed for rehabilitation and/or upgrading and 14,842 ckt-km of lines are for construction while an additional 5,755 MVA substation capacity will be constructed⁸ (Figure 10 and 11). On a per grid basis, Luzon DUs will require 3,865 MVA additional substation capacity, 7,469 ckt-km of new distribution lines and rehabilitation of 20,735 ckt-km of lines (Table 6). In the Visayas, DUs plan to rehabilitate 1,584 ckt-km of lines, extend coverage of distribution lines by 3,327 ckt-km, and construct new substation capacity of 1,162 MVA. In Mindanao, developments in the infrastructure requirements are focused on construction of 728 MVA substation capacity and 4,046 ckt-km of distribution lines, and rehabilitation of 2,106 ckt-km of lines. 

Implementing all these projects will require P70.9 billion investments (Figure 12). The largest bulk of the financial investments, estimated at about P21.2 billion is for the electrification projects while P29.1 billion will be utilized in the construction of new distribution lines and additional substation capacity and P20.6 billion for rehabilitation of distribution lines (Table 7).  In Luzon, costs for rehabilitation of distribution lines will amount to PhP10.0 billion whereas construction of additional substation capacity and implementation of electrification projects will require P3.4 billion and P9.8 billion, respectively. Expansion projects will entail P7.9 billion in cost. Looking at similar infrastructure requirements in Visayas, expansion of new distribution lines will reach P8.3 billion. Moreover, total cost for new substation capacities is estimated at P2.4 billion, electrification projects at P5.0 billion and rehabilitation projects at P5.1 billion. Similarly, to improve system performance in Mindanao, DUs are projecting an investment of P4.8 billion in expansion of new distribution lines, P2.2 billion in additional substation capacities, P6.4 billion in electrification projects, and P5.5 billion in rehabilitation and upgrading of existing distribution lines. 

⁸ Figures from DUs with 2009 DDP submission only. 

Comparative DDP (2008-2017 DDP vis-à-vis 2009-2018 DDP) 

SUMMARY TABLES 

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