INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

Contents

INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................... 3

Climate................................................................................................................................... 4

Demographic characteristics.............................................................................................. 4

Economy............................................................................................................................... 5

MITIGATION.............................................................................................................................. 7

Mitigation Status and Context........................................................................................... 9

Actions.................................................................................................................................. 9

ADAPTATION......................................................................................................................... 11

Statement of current and near-term adaptation planning and action........................ 13

Statement of adaptation gaps, barriers and needs....................................................... 13

Financing needs for priority adaptation interventions................................................. 13

Addressing gaps in national, sector and community-level adaptation and climate resilience programs ............................................................................................................................  13

Innovative financing approaches and operations......................................................... 14

MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION............................................................................................ 14

EQUITY.................................................................................................................................... 14

INTRODUCTION

Solomon Islands comprises a scattered archipelago of 994 islands combining mountainous islands as well as low lying coral atolls within a tuna-rich and potentially mineral-rich maritime Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ) of 1.34 million square kilometres. The land area of 28,000 square kilometres with 4,023 kilometres of coastline is the second largest in the Pacific after Papua New Guinea. The highest point in the country, Mt Makarakomburu is 2,447m above sea level and is the highest peak in the insular Pacific. There are six main islands, Choiseul, New Georgia, Santa Isabel, Malaita, Guadalcanal and Makira, which are characterized by a rugged and mountainous landscape of volcanic origin. Between and beyond the bigger islands are hundreds of smaller volcanic islands and low lying coral atolls. All of the mountainous islands of volcanic origin are forested with many coastal areas surrounded by fringing reefs and lagoons. 

Figure 1:  Map of Solomon Islands

The islands are grouped into three different major “geological provinces‟; the Pacific Geological Province (including Malaita, Ulawa and North Eastern part of Santa  Isabel island); Central Geological Province (Makira, Guadalcanal and the Florida Islands, South- Western part of Isabel and Choiseul) and; the Volcanic Geological Province (New Georgia, Russell Islands, Shortland Islands and North Western tip of Guadalcanal and Savo). Guadalcanal is the largest island and the only one with a significant area of grassland and rich alluvium soils. Most of the islands have highly weathered soils of low fertility with  pockets of fertile areas mainly on volcanic islands and river valleys.

The country is situated within the earthquake belt or “Ring of Fire‟ which makes it extremely vulnerable to the effects and impacts of earthquakes. A major earthquake measuring 8.1 on the Richter scale occurred in the Western Province in 2007 causing a major tsunami that affected the Western and Choiseul provinces and causing 52 deaths and scores missing. About 40,000 people were affected. Many islands have subsided whilst a few have been uplifted a few metres. Extensive damage was experienced throughout the two provinces costing hundreds of millions of    dollars. The country and many communities and individuals are still recovering from this double disaster event.

Climate

Solomon Islands climate is tropical, though temperatures are rarely extreme due to cooling winds blowing off the surrounding seas. Temperature is the least varied of climate parameters with daytime temperatures fluctuating between 25oC to 32oC. The rainy season occurs between November to April and the dry season from June to October during the year. Most islands have a mean annual rainfall of 3,000 to 5,500 mm with two-peak rainfalls during the year. The highest rainfall recorded in Solomon Islands is an annual average of 8,304 mm at 430 m above sea level at Koloula on Guadalcanal (Hansell and Wall 1970). Daily rainfall  of over 250 mm is normal. High rainfall intensity events occur during tropical storms and often result in flooding of most river systems. The highest recorded rainfall of 281mm over a 12 hour period was recorded in 2009 resulting in destructive flooding and loss of lives. More recently the highest recorded daily rainfall of 318mm was recorded in April 2014 causing widespread flooding and damage to property, infrastructure and loss of 23 lives along the Mataniko River, Central Honiara. Rainfall trends vary across the country and are influenced by geographic differences.

Demographic characteristics

Solomon Islands has 28,400 square kilometers of land, with a population of 598,860 (September 2015 estimate). Solomon Islands has a population density of 21 people per square kilometre. The capital and largest city is Honiara, with a population estimated at 67,000. There are no other cities with a population of more than 10,000 in the country.

Most people in Solomon Islands are ethnically Melanesian (94.5%). Other large ethnic groups include Polynesian (3%) and Micronesian (1.2%), with a few thousand ethnic  Chinese in the country. There are 70 living languages in Solomon Islands with Melanesian languages spoken mostly on the main islands. While English is the official language, just 1- 2% of the population speaks English.

Ninety two percent of the population is Christian, with major denominations including the Anglican Church of Melanesia (35%), Roman Catholic (19%), South Seas Evangelical Church (17%), United Church in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands (11%), and Seventh-day Adventist (10%). The rest of the population adheres to Islam, Jehovah's Witnesses, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormons), the Baha'i faith, and “Kastom”.

Around 80% of the national population live on low lying coastal areas. The capital city of Honiara is the only major area of economic activity and attracts increasing numbers of youth and adults per year from other islands seeking employment and income. Urban migration is estimated at 4% and with the current rate of growth the national population is expected to double by 2020.

The Solomon Island’s Human Development Index (HDI) was 0.510 in 2011, and is one of the lowest in the Pacific, and it ranked 142 out of 187 countries (UNDP, 2011). On the achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) a range of social indicators show that the country is likely to meet Goal 2 (Achieve universal primary education) and Goal 5 (Improve maternal health). Females still have less access than males to secondary and tertiary education while women have poor access to health and family planning services in the rural areas. According to the ADB (2010) much of the improvement in the HDI was the result of significant overseas financial and technical assistance, with aid levels increasing from 22% of GDP in 1990 to 66% of GDP in 2005. An analysis of household income and expenditure data collected in 2005/06 shows that situations of hardship and poverty is rising with 11% of the population experiencing difficulties in acquiring basic needs.

Economy

The bulk of the population depends on agriculture, fishing, and forestry for at least part of its livelihood. Most manufactured goods and petroleum products must be imported. The islands are rich in undeveloped mineral resources such as lead, zinc, nickel, and gold. Prior to the arrival of The Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands (RAMSI), severe ethnic violence, the closing of key businesses, and an empty government treasury culminated in economic collapse. RAMSI's efforts to restore law and order and economic stability have led to modest growth as the economy rebuilds.

In its 2014 annual report, the Central Bank of Solomon Islands (CBSI) reported that the Solomon Islands economy showed a lot of resilience in 2014 to recover from the negative fallouts from the April 2014 floods and the closure of Gold Ridge mine in the second quarter. Therefore growth for 2014 was revised upward from 0.9% to 2.0% but was down against pre-flood projection of 3.7% as a result of improvements in key non mineral sectors combined with the swift expenditure adjustments both from the national government and its development partners. Favourable external developments in particular rising prices for major export commodities and falling energy prices later in the second half of the year also supported the economic recovery.

Domestic economic activities performed much better than previously anticipated in April 2014. Preliminary estimates from the CBSI pointed to an overall growth of 2.0% for 2014, 1.1 percentage points higher than the 0.9% that CBSI projected in April 2014. All sectors except for mineral, manufacturing and utilities sectors recorded positive growths during the year. Surprisingly, logging activities jumped up significantly to a new unprecedented level during the year. This to a great extent temporarily cushioned the contraction in the mineral sector and boosted overall growth for the year supported by positive developments in agriculture, fisheries, communication, construction, and finance sectors.

Leading indicators in the labour market showed modest growth in employment even though some industries found the year challenging. The mineral sector was the hardest hit with about 720 workers driven out of jobs after the closure of Gold Ridge Mining Limited in the second quarter. Industry consultations the Central Bank conducted earlier this year revealed most companies in the non-mineral sectors either retained their staff or employed a few  more people despite the economic shocks in the second quarter. This is consistent with trends in the number of superannuation contributors that rose by 12% over the year to 53,796 people even considering the redundancy exercise in the mineral sector.

Production of key export commodities in the economy weakened further in 2014 owing in large part to the closure of the only gold mine in the country. As measured by the CBSI production index, the commodity sector fell by 4% against the previous year. The overall decline was driven by gold which plunged by 15.3% to outweigh the combined gains in the non-mineral index (see Figure 1b). The fall would have been more drastic if logging activities remained low at the same level as in the first half of 2014. Log production increased dramatically to 2,128,000 cubic meters from 1,897,000 cubic meters in 2013, a jump of 5.3 points over the year to 51.3 in the log index. Re-entry into previously logged areas, clear felling activities, and issuance of additional logging licenses contributed to the sharp escalation in the exported log volumes.

The Government suffered a major setback in 2014 following the devastation caused by the April floods and the closure of the Gold Ridge mine. Fortunately, development partners were quick to respond and the government with available fiscal space have cushioned the  revenue shortfall and accommodated high unplanned expenditure pressures. These quickly restored  affected  infrastructures  and  minimised  economic  downtime.  The    Government recorded a fiscal surplus of $129 million during the year from revenue collections of $3.1 billion and $3.0 billion in expenditures. The surplus was attributed to unexpected increases  in revenue particularly from fishing licenses, increased budget support, and expenditure savings most notably in the capital budget.

Despite the cessation of gold production in the Solomon Islands, total exports rose by 5.3% in the first half of 2015 over the same period in 2014, largely reflecting higher exports of bauxite and agricultural commodities.

After parliamentary elections in November 2014, passage of the 2015 budget was delayed to April to give the new coalition government time to incorporate its spending priorities. The resulting 2015 budget provides for total expenditures that is 11.8% higher than the revised 2014 budget, mostly because of higher expenditure on flood recovery. Total revenues and grants are also projected to rise, but by only 3.3%. Fishing license revenue is seen to increase but not enough to offset revenue declines from suspended operations at the gold mine. The government expects to incur a deficit, equivalent to 4.9% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), for a second consecutive year and plans to draw down cash reserves to finance the deficit.

Consumer prices have been declining in 2015 following large flood-related price rises last year. Softening international food and fuel prices have contributed. Between January and July 2015, consumer prices were 2.4% lower than in the same period in 2014 driven by reductions in prices for food, drinks and tobacco, and housing and utilities declined. However, core inflation remains positive suggesting that headline inflation will rise in the latter part of the year.

The forecast for 2016 remains unchanged as growth is expected to benefit from planned fiscal expansion.

The domestic economy is expected to be more buoyant in 2015 than the previous year. The interplay between key domestic sectors and global price trends is anticipated to support further recovery. Economic growth is anticipated to increase in 2015 to 3.3% from 2.0% in 2014. In the primary sector, the key drivers are fisheries and agriculture while logging is expected to subside after the significant jump in 2014. The mineral sector, in spite of positive contributions from bauxite exports, would still see a decline in 2015 with the absence of gold. External conditions are expected to improve slightly over the previous year despite expectations that the structural current account imbalance would remain in 2015. Budget support and donor capital inflows are expected to outstrip the current account deficit and boost gross foreign reserves. The export sector however could worsen on the back of anticipated declines from gold and log export receipts while imports are expected to rise modestly. Persistent falling oil prices gives temporary reprieve for the economy in terms of lower fuel import bills at least for 2015.

MITIGATION

1 Using 2011 ddata from World Bank, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx.

Mitigation Status and Context

Greenhouse gas emissions are the result of combustion of imported fossil fuels in the energy sector for:

• Electricity generation;
• Sea transport;
• Land transport;

Actions

Solomon Islands has considered mitigation actions that were currently planned and funded (as the Solomon Islands Contribution), and those that have been identified as technically viable with current technology suitable to the Solomon Islands context (as the Contribution conditional on adequate and timely international assistance), are included in  the Table below.

Keys:     RE - Renewable Energy

EE – Energy Efficiency

The conditional Mitigation Actions will require a timely combination of capacity building, technology transfer, and financial support, primarily in the form of grants. Additional mitigation actions may be identified in the future. Below is a brief summary of the activities proposed for off-grid electricity production, with estimates of financial resources required (in USD).

ADAPTATION

Solomon Islands has been working actively on climate change adaptation for 20 years, and with the development of pioneering tools and methodologies that are regarded as best practices regionally and internationally, has made and continues to make a considerable contribution to the global and regional adaptation planning and management process and pool of knowledge on building climate resilience. This contribution is made in the face of severe constraints and challenges confronted by Solomon Islands as a small island developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Country (LDC). For Solomon Islands, as  with other small islands developing States and Least Developed Countries, where climate change threatens the very existence of the people and the nation, adaptation is not an  option – but rather a matter of survival.

Current climate, projected climate change and related assumptions

The interannual climate of Solomon Islands is basically driven by natural drivers such as the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the West Monsoon and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The wet season is generally driven by the ITCZ and the West Monsoon resulting in strong north-westerly winds and seas affecting mostly the northern part of the country. Associated heavy and long rainfall periods usually influence agriculture activities in the northern parts of the country during this time. The SPCZ typically drives the weather and the climate of the southern part of Solomon Islands during the dry season where strong southeast trades brings onshore heavy rainfall that disturbs agricultural activities as well.

During an El Nino ocean surface waters over the western Pacific (including Solomon Islands) are usually cooler than normal and warmer than normal from central to eastern of the Pacific. Hence, in most cases, prolonged dry periods could escalate from meteorological drought to agricultural drought in the western Pacific. Solomon Islands experiences drought conditions during El Nino events such as that occurring in 1997 causing water shortages on many islands. The divergence results in nutrient rich waters rising to the ocean surface in the eastern Pacific causing outbreaks in plankton growth which is followed by tuna stocks.

During a La Nina event the opposite seems to happen, where waters over the western Pacific (including Solomon Islands) are warmer than normal hence causing more cloud formation resulting in prolonged and high rainfall periods. Cyclones and high rainfall events are associated with the La Nina periods in the western Pacific. The future of ENSO events is still not clear but it is expected that it will continue to be an important driver of Pacific Islands climate into the future.

Observed temperature data by the Solomon Islands Meteorological Services show that annual surface temperature for the western, central and eastern regions of Solomon Islands have increased during the last 30 to 50 years. The range of increase in mean air  temperature for most provinces is between 0.14oC and 0.17oC/decade.

A study carried out by the Pacific Climate Change Scientific Programme (PCCSP, 2011) under Australian Government showed that for three emission scenarios (low, medium and high) using 18 Global Circulation Models the temperature in the Solomon islands will increase by 0.2oC (low) in 2030 to 3.3 oC (high) in 2090. The sea surface temperature (SST) is projected to increase in the next 30 -70 years in Solomon Islands.

Rainfall data analysed to date show that annual rainfall in the three regions (western,  eastern and western Solomon Islands) is mostly varied due to the geography of the different islands, their relative position with each other, the direction and duration of prevailing winds and drivers of climate in the Pacific. However, it can be clearly seen that there were sharp declines around mid-1990s for all the three regions. These declines correlated with the severe El Nino event between 1997 and 1998 that affected most parts of the country. The general trends however show that in the central region there was a decrease in rainfall and a slight increase for the western and eastern regions in the past 30-50 years. The rainfall trends show that:

• In the area around the capital city of Honiara a general decline per decade is occurring while the population is growing at a rate of approximately 6% per annum. To ensure adequate water supply for the growing population of the city a robust and well enforced Integrated Water Resource Management strategy and programme needs to be put in place. Conservation and effective management of the forests surrounding Honiara is essential and increasing numbers of bore holes will need to be established over the coming years to supplement the Kongulae water source in the longer term. The proportion of annual rainfall from extreme rainfall has increased significantly which could result in longer drought periods in the dry season and more severe flooding.
• In Auki town, Malaita Province, a decline in rainfall for both the dry and wet seasons is being experienced.
• In Taro Island, Choiseul Province, a similar trend as Auki is emerging. The plan to relocate the provincial headquarters and town from Taro Island to the mainland area of Choiseul Bay is also a good adaptation strategy that needs to be complemented with an Integrated Water Resource Management strategy and programme.

Tropical cyclones pose a serious threat to the people, economy and environment and result in flooding and wind damage in the Solomon Islands. There have been severe floods on Guadalcanal, Malaita, Makira and Santa Isabel in recent years with a number of lives lost, and severe damage to agriculture and Infrastructure. In 2002 the remote island of Tikopia was hit by a Category 5 cyclone Zoe.

In the Solomon Islands’ region, projections tend to show a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones by the late 21st century and an increase in the proportion of the more intense storms. As per Pacific Climate Change Science Program (Australian Government), by the end of this century projections suggest decreasing numbers of tropical cyclones but a possible shift towards more intense categories.

Solomon Islands is highly vulnerable to droughts, extreme rainfall, floods, king tides and sea level rise. Droughts are usually associated with the El Nino phenomenon. The 1997/98 El Nino caused severe drought conditions in many parts of the country and one of the major prolonged droughts occurred in the eastern part of the country in the Temotu province in 2004 causing food and water shortages. Another major problem associated with extremely high rainfall or prolonged rainfall is the big decline in the yields of sweet potato, the main staple crop in rural areas, due to increased vegetative growth and decline in the growth of tuber. Flooding can also occur as a result of a combination of factors, including king tides, areas associated with low atmospheric pressure, and rising sea levels. In 2008 king tides struck northern Choiseul, Ontong Java and other parts of the country. These came in the form of high swells never before experienced in the islands. The tides caused more coastal erosion, considerable damage to coral reefs, coastal inundation, pollution of water sources and damage to coastal infrastructures.

Statement of current and near-term adaptation planning and action

The Climate Change Policy (2012-2017) which is linked to National Development Strategy (2011-2020) provides a policy framework for developing and describing ongoing and  planned actions (changes in institutions, modified policies and measures, major projects/programs, planning processes, and financial investments) using international and country resources .

Statement of adaptation gaps, barriers and needs

Institutional challenges relating to high staff turnover rates in senior executive positions, limited sector specific training, and a lack of clarity on internal roles and responsibilities in some sectors hampers national efforts on adaptation. Adaptation knowledge sharing, coordination and collaboration among ministries as well as with non-governmental organisations (NGOs), the private sector, faith-based organisations and development partners is less than adequate in the Solomon Islands. There needs to be a focus on development of knowledge, skill levels to address capacity gaps with regards to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction throughout Solomon Islands society, particularly in the outer islands and among marginalised populations.

There is need to translate the climate science and predicted impacts into messages that support action by Solomon Islanders. “Kastom” barriers also hamper awareness and action as with very limited capacity at the community level to undertake local level vulnerability mapping, adaptation planning and the implementation of priority adaptation interventions.

Financing needs for priority adaptation interventions

Some adaptation projects have been grouped into thematic areas linked to the priority sectors established in the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) as well as some recently identified priorities. The total adaptation cost would be US$126,650,000; NAPA would cost US$17,250,000 covering agriculture and food security, water and sanitation, human settlements and human health, education awareness and information; low-lying and artificially built-up islands; waste management; coastal protection; fisheries and marine resources, infrastructure development and tourism. However the total cost of NAPA will have changed considerably upward and therefore will require further evaluation and costing. Other priorities identified through the national communication process would cost additional US$109,400,000. It is expected that a considerable portion of the necessary financing will  be provided in the forms of grants from the Green Climate Fund, Global Environment Facility (GEF), Adaptation Fund, and from various bi-lateral climate change programs.

Addressing gaps in national, sector and community-level adaptation and climate resilience programs

It is the intention of the Solomon Islands Government that a community-based vulnerability mapping, adaptation planning and management approach (tied to direct access to financing for community-based resilience-building projects) be employed on a whole of island basis that will build capacity in vulnerable villages for localised adaptation actions which  represents a critical contribution to the implementation of adaptation.

The Solomon Islands Government will establish the institutional structures and strengthen capacities at the community level in order to support the country-wide implementation of community-based vulnerability mapping and adaptation planning, and the community-based design and implementation of priority resilience measures through direct access to financing for such measures.