Government of Nepal

Ministry of Population and Environment

INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS (INDC)

Communicated to the UNFCCC Secretariat in February 2016

A.     BACKGROUND

Nepal, a least developed, mountainous and land-locked country, is one of the least contributors to the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). With aspirations of the people to improve the country’s economy; its development agenda is constrained by the fact that it is one of the most vulnerable countries to the adverse impacts of climate change.

1.    Nepal’s Vulnerability to Climate Change

Nepal's mountainous and challenging topography and socio-economic conditions (ranks 145 on the Human Development Index, nearly one-fourth of its population live below poverty line) make it a highly vulnerable country to climate change.

Nepal has experienced changes in temperature and mean precipitation. The country, with  the exception of some isolated pockets, has become warmer. Data on trends from 1975 to 2005 showed 0.06°C rise in temperature annually whereas mean rainfall has significantly decreased on an average of 3.7 mm (-3.2%) per month per decade. Under various climate change scenarios, mean annual temperatures are projected to increase between 1.3-3.8°C by the 2060s and 1.8-5.8°C by the 2090s. Annual precipitation is projected to reduce in a range of 10 to 20% across the country.

In Nepal’s Himalaya, total estimated ice reserve between 1977 and 2010 decreased by 29% (129 km3). The number of glacier lakes increased by 11% and glaciers recede on an average  by 38 km2 per year during the same period. Hence, climate change has visible  and pronounced impacts on snows and glaciers that are likely to increase the possibilities of Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Nepal has suffered from the impacts of increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as landslides, floods and droughts resulting in the loss of human lives as well as high social and economic costs.

The 2013 study on Economic Impact Assessment of Climate Change in Key Sectors (agriculture, hydropower and water-induced disasters) has estimated direct cost of current climate variability and extreme events equivalent to 1.5 to 2% of current GDP/year (approximately USD 270-360 million/year in 2013 prices) and much higher in extreme years. In the case of hydropower, the model projected lower dry season flows and thus lower energy availability. The additional energy generation capacity needed to meet future demand under this scenario, due to climate change, has been estimated at 2800 MW by2050 with an increase in costs of USD 2.6 billion (present value) for the period through to 2050. Overall,  the economic costs of climate change in Nepal for these three sectors could be equivalent to 2-3% of current GDP/year by mid-century.

Overall, Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, water-induced disasters and hydro-meteorological extreme events such as droughts, storms, floods, inundation, landslides, debris flow, soil erosion and avalanches. Based on  National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) 2010, out of 75 districts, 29 districts are highly vulnerable to landslides, 22 districts to drought, 12 districts to GLOFs, and 9 districts to flooding.

Nepal is ranked as the eleventh most earthquake-prone country in the world. It experienced  a devastating earthquake of 7.6 magnitudes on 25 April 2015 with around 9,000 casualties and over 22,000 injuries. The destruction was widespread as it ruined houses, heritage sites, schools, health posts, infrastructures (roads, bridges and hydro-electricity plants) and social systems (water supply, agricultural land, trekking routes, and sports facilities). Lives of about 8 million people have been severely impacted by this earthquake demanding unbelievably high cost of reconstruction.

Earthquake and climate-induced disasters have accelerated vulnerabilities and risks to water, sanitation and food security resulting in further aggravation of country's vulnerabilities to climatic hazards.

2.    Nepal's Emission Scenario

Nepal's greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is only around 0.027% of total global emissions. According to the Second National Communication (2015), GHG emissions from the energy sector is in increasing trend, and this is almost negligible in industry sector. With an agricultural economy, larger portion of GHGs emissions is from the agricultural sector, but the emissions due to increased use of fossil fuels have risen over time. For 1994, total GHGs emission from energy, industrial processes, agriculture and waste (without Land Use, Land- Use Change and Forestry, LULUCF) was estimated at 29,347 CO2-eq Gt while it has declined to 24,541 CO2-eq Gt for 2000. However, total GHGs emission for 2008 has reached to 30,011 CO2-eq Gt, slightly increased from 1994 emission level. The country as a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pursues and supports efforts to limit the increase in temperature to well below 2°C leading to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in order to reduce the risks and adverse impacts of climate change.

Nepal believes that the cumulative impacts of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted to the UNFCCC would greatly contribute to limiting temperature rise to safe levels and making this planet livable. Nepal has prepared its INDC in the process of implementing the decisions of the Conference of the Parties (COPs) through a broad-based stakeholder consultation processes.

B.      NEPAL'S ENHANCED ACTIONS TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE

Nepal has initiated several activities to reduce climate hazards and build resilience, help climate vulnerable communities cope with climate change impacts, and reduce impacts of climate change on its people, property and natural resources. Key and most relevant activities are briefly summarized below:

1.    Institutions

a.          Institutional Strengthening

The Government of Nepal is strengthening its institutions to ensure implementation of climate change and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation plus (REDD+) programmes. The Climate Change Management Division in the Ministry of Population and Environment, and REDD Implementation Centre under the Ministry of Forest and Soil Conservation are dedicated to developing necessary prerequisites for the effective implementation of the UNFCCC provisions. The National Planning Commission  and   relevant ministries have also made necessary arrangements to integrate climate change concerns into their policies and programmes. Nepal has also established the Recovery and Reconstruction Authority to rebuild infrastructures and settlements devastated by the earthquake of April 2015 and make Nepal greener and more resilient to natural hazards. Several non- governmental and community-based organizations are also engaged in strengthening  national and local entities to provide services to the climate vulnerable communities.

b.          Coordination Mechanism

Nepal has established coordination mechanisms at highest political level for necessary policy guidance and coordination and at local level for implementation on the ground. Establish- ment of Climate Change Council, Climate Change Coordination Committee and REDD Coordination and Monitoring Committee at the political levels and Multi-stakeholder Climate Change Initiatives Coordination Committee and REDD Working Group chaired by Secretaries of the concerned ministries provide guidance, ensure coordination and function to align climate change with development activities. The REDD Multi-Stakeholder Forum acts as an outreach and communication platform. The climate change networks managed by civil  society organizations also contribute to generating and sharing knowledge on climate change and its impacts.

2.    Policies, Strategies and Frameworks

a.          Climate Change Policy

Nepal’s Climate Change Policy (2011) envisions a country spared from the adverse impacts of climate change, by considering climate justice, through the pursuit of environmental conservation, human development, and sustainable development – all contributing towards a prosperous society. The Policy has objectives of, inter alia, reducing GHG emissions by promoting the use of clean energy; enhancing the climate adaptation and resilience capacity of local communities for optimum utilization of natural resources and their efficient management; and adopting a low-carbon development pathway by pursuing climate-  resilient socio-economic development.

b.          Forestry Sector Policies and Strategies

Nepal emphasizes in mitigating adverse impacts of climate change, and in adopting adaptation measures. It strategizes to develop mitigation-friendly forest management systems. The working policies emphasizes, inter alia, to make community-based forests and watershed management climate adaptation-friendly, enhance carbon sequestration through sustainable management of forests, and support programmes that reduce carbon emissions from forest areas. More than 25,000 community-based forest management groups across the country are directly engaged in managing about 30% of the country's total forest area. These community-based organizations are not only contributing to sequestering carbon dioxide by sustainable management of forest resources but  also playing  effective  roles  in  designing and implementing Community Adaptation Plans of Action (CAPAs) based on forests and non-forests benefits.

Considering climate change mitigation and resilience as one of the major strategic pillars, the Forestry Sector Strategy (2016-2025) aims to enhance Nepal's forest carbon stock by at  least 5% by 2025  as  compared  to  2015  level,  and  to  decrease  mean  annual deforestation  rate by 0.05% from about 0.44% and 0.18% in the Terai and Siwalik hills respectively. It also aims to put in place forest carbon trade and payment mechanism and mainstream community/ecosystem-based adaptation by 2025.

Forest areas are planned to be managed in a variety of modalities and regimes including community forests, leasehold forests, collaborative forests and protected areas following a landscape approach to resource conservation and management. The benefits of forests are projected to use in forest-enterprise development, adaptation to climate change and contribution to local and national economy while sustainably conserving watershed and biodiversity.

The Nepal Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (2014-2020) emphasize biodiversity conservation and ecosystem resilience as keys to national prosperity. The Strategy recognizes legitimate rights of all Nepali people including indigenous people and local communities, women, Dalits and other disadvantaged social groups over local biological resources.

c.           Energy Policy

Nepal has a policy for maximum utilization of hydropower potential to meet its domestic demand of electricity by mitigating adverse environmental impacts. It also has a policy to accelerate renewable energy services, and increase access to the Renewable Energy technologies with subsidy provisions.

The National Rural Renewable Energy Programme (NRREP), under implementation, provides  a framework for the local communities across the country to have access to not only energy but also energy efficient technologies through various subsidy programmes.

By 2020, Nepal intends to expand its energy mix focusing on renewable by 20% and diversifying its energy consumption pattern to more industrial and commercial sectors.

d.          Environment-Friendly Vehicle and Transport Policy

The Environment-friendly Vehicle and Transport Policy (2014) aims, inter alia, to reduce emission from transport sector, increase the share of electric vehicle up to 20% by 2020, promote the transformation of other regular vehicle to electric vehicle, and provide subsidy scheme for the promotion of electric and non-motorized vehicles. It has a strategic approach to avoid unnecessary travel, reduce trip distance, promote the shift towards more  sustainable transport modes such as non-motorized transport component in the transport plan, and further promote public transport systems. The Policy calls for an improvement in transport practices and technologies through diversifying towards electricity, hybrid and natural gases; promoting progressive and affordable standards for fuel quality, and regulating vehicle emissions in order to ensure compliance with air quality.

e.          National REDD Strategy

Nepal is finalizing the National REDD-plus Strategy and considers that REDD+ initiatives would further contribute to promoting sustainable management of forests, carbon sequestration and adaptation co-benefits. It has a vision to optimize carbon and non-carbon benefits of forest ecosystems for the prosperity of the Nepali people, and has objectives of, inter alia, reducing  carbon  emission,  and  enhancing  carbon   sequestration  and  climate     resilience through both mitigation and adaptation approaches by minimizing the causes and effects of drivers of deforestation and forest degradation, and intensifying sustainable management of forest resources.

Nepal will pilot a sub-national project on REDD+ to reduce about 14 million tons of CO2-eq by 2020 by addressing the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation and strengthening governance mechanisms in all types of forests and protected areas.

f.            Low Carbon Economic Development Strategy

As  a  roadmap  to  opt  low  carbon  pathways,  Nepal  is  in  the  process  of  finalizing  its  Low Carbon Economic Development Strategy (LCEDS) to further promote the use of renewable energy and look into the cross-sectoral approaches of the economy where GHGs emissions can be minimized. This pathway will aid Nepal to bolster social and economic developments and ensure environmental conservation while achieving the goals of sustainable development by reducing poverty.

g.          National Adaptation Programme of Action

As a least developed country Party to the UNFCCC and in accordance with the decisions of the seventh session of the COP held in Marrakesh, Nepal has prepared its National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to Climate Change in September 2010 through extensive consultative processes to address the most urgent and immediate needs of adaptation. The effective implementation of NAPA priorities would provide multiple opportunities to help climate vulnerable communities and ecosystems cope with the adverse impacts of climate change, and improve livelihoods by addressing most urgent and  immediate adaptation needs.

h.          National Framework on Local Adaptation Plans for Action

In order to localize climate change adaptation, Nepal has adopted a National Framework on Local Adaptation Plans for Action (LAPA) to ensure integration of adaptation and resilience into local to national planning processes. This ensures bottom-up, inclusive, responsive and flexible planning. The LAPA contributes to sensitizing local people and stakeholders, carrying out vulnerability and adaptation assessment; identifying, selecting and prioritizing adaptation options; and formulating and implementing adaptation plans. The framework provides opportunities to develop and implement a stand-alone LAPA and/or integrate adaptation options into the regular planning and implementation processes. At present, Nepal is implementing LAPAs in 90 Village Development Committees and 7 Municipalities – the lowest administrative units in the country. Similarly, about 375 local adaptation plans and nearly 2200 Community Adaptation Plans of Action (CAPAs) for community forests have been developed.

i.             National Adaptation Plans

In 2015, Nepal launched a process to formulate and implement National Adaptation Plan (NAP) to address medium and long-term adaptation needs and reduce climate vulnerabilities. This will also promote integration of climate change adaptation into sectoral policies, strategies, plans and programmes. The NAP will be developed through country- driven, extensive consultation, participatory and transparent approaches and concerned ministry-led Thematic Working Groups.

j.            Environment Friendly Local Governance Framework

Nepal is implementing an Environment-Friendly Local Governance (EFLG) Framework with  the objectives of mainstreaming environment, climate change adaptation and disaster management in the local planning processes. The Framework also aims to make the local governance system environment-friendly and initiate sustainable development activities at the field level such as household and communities. Some of the indicators that the framework prioritizes are:

-         Promote renewable and clean energy and energy efficient technology

-         Increase greenery through tree plantation and management of gardens and parks

-         Plant trees in at least 10% of the current open/barren land

-         Promote rainwater harvesting and ponds construction

-         Enhance waste management through environment friendly technology

-         Promote sustainable and organic farming and reduce the use of agro-chemicals

-         Increase disaster management skills at the local level

-         Control industrial pollution through effective regulations

In addition, the Local Governance and Community Development Programme has prioritized to implement rural renewable energy programmes, local climate change adaptive living facility and poverty-environment initiatives in selected districts, VDCs and municipalities to mitigate climate change impacts and help communities adapt to climate change.

k.          Channeling Funding for Climate Change Activities

The Government of Nepal is practicing a dedicated climate change budget code in its fiscal planning and budgeting processes to channel funding for climate change and related activities. The Climate Change Policy obliges to channel over 80% of the total climate finance to grassroots level activities.

In addition, the Agriculture Development Strategy (2015), National Conservation Strategy Framework (2015), Disaster Risk Reduction Management Strategy and periodic policies provide ample opportunities to help climate vulnerable communities to adapt and build resilience to climate change impacts.

3.    Adaptation Actions

The Government of Nepal also realizes the importance of reducing climate change impacts and implements climate adaptation actions to protect life and improve livelihoods of the climate vulnerable communities and also improve ecosystem services. Nepal has also made significant progress in implementing adaptation actions as prioritized in its NAPA to help adapt and build resilience to climate change impacts. The LAPA Framework ensures the process of integrating climate change adaptation and resilience from local-to-national level planning processes that are bottom-up, inclusive, responsive and flexible.

a.          Adapting to Climate Change

The Government of Nepal is implementing climate change adaptation and resilience programmes and projects with support from Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF), multilateral  agencies  and  bilateral  supports.  At  present,  Nepal  Climate  Change   Support Programme (NCCSP), Community-based Flood Risk and GLOF Risk Reduction programme, Ecosystem-based Adaptation Programme, including enhancing capacity, knowledge and technology support to build climate resilience of vulnerable communities, Hariyo  Ban  Project (climate adaptation component), and Multi-stakeholder Forestry Programme (adaptation co-benefits) are under various stages of implementation. Localizing climate adaptation actions has been deeply rooted in planning and implementation of NCCSP target areas. Additional efforts are underway to promote climate change adaptation into planning and programming processes.

b.          Building Climate Resilience

The Government has accorded high priority to build climate resilience by integrating it into policies, strategies and programmes. At present, projects such as building climate resilient watersheds in mountainous eco-regions, building resilience to climate related hazards, mainstreaming climate change risk management in development, and building climate resilient communities through private sector participation are under various stages of implementation and are contributing to develop human resources so as to integrate climate change concerns in sectoral plans and programmes.

Nepal’s Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) compromises four components i) Building Climate Resilience of Watersheds in Mountain Eco Regions, ii) Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards, iii) Mainstreaming Climate Change Risk Management in Development,   and iv) Building Climate Resilient Communities through Private Sector Participation. All the PPCR components have been launched and are at different stages of implementation. The ongoing programs are complimenting each other and various climate change programs in Nepal including those to implement LAPAs and other NAPA priorities.

4.    Knowledge Management

Nepal has initiated knowledge generation and dissemination by establishing a Climate  Change Knowledge Management Centre. Several governmental, non-governmental and community-based organizations, academic and research institutions are involved in generating and disseminating data and information on climate change and its impacts in the recent years.

5.    Mitigation Actions

a.          Clean Energy Development Pathways

Nepal's energy use is primarily dominated by traditional sources energy, mainly biomass for domestic purposes. Renewable energy contributes to only 1% of the total energy use. Currently, 56% of the population has regular access to electricity for lightning. Despite a huge potential for renewable energies such as hydropower, solar power and wind energy, these resources have not been sustainably captured due to geographical, technical, political and economical reasons. As a result, the country is facing acute power shortage of electricity and load shedding may stretch up to 15 hours per day in winter season.

Regardless of these difficulties, Nepal has continued to prioritize the generation and utilization of clean energy, particularly through hydro-electricity at a larger scale.  For the last two decades, micro-hydro, solar, biogas and improved cook stoves have been promoted at the rural scale and in line with the National Rural and Renewable Energy Programme in the recent years.

The Subsidy Delivery Mechanism for renewable energy has been adopted since 2006 to ensure disbursement of subsidy in a cost effective and easy access manner in rural areas. Recently, the Government of Nepal has launched an initiative to promote solar energy, renewable energy technologies and energy-efficient technology in urban areas.

Moreover, the recent fuel crisis that sparked from September 2015 has accorded high priority to scale-up production of renewable energy technologies in order to meet the energy demands of urban, peri-urban and rural areas. Nepal is planning to generate clean energy as follows:

• 4,000 MW of hydroelectricity by 2020 and 12,000 MW by 2030;
• 2,100 MW of solar energy by 2030 with arrangements to distribute it through the  grid;
• Additional 220 MW of electricity from bio-energy by 2030;
• Additional 50 MW of electricity from small and micro hydropower plants;
• Increase the share of biogas up to 10% as energy for cooking in rural areas; and
• Equip every household in rural areas with smokeless (improved) cooking stoves (ICS) by 2030.

b.          Afforestation and Enhancing Carbon Sequestration

The Government has a strategy to maintain at least 40% of the total area of the country under forests. It further promotes afforestation in public and private lands, environment- friendly infrastructure development and the conservation of biodiversity. It also promotes  the management of ecosystems in different eco-regions of the country which will endorse sustainable management of forests, enhance capacity of local communities in adaptation and resilience, widen carbon storage through sustainable forest management and reduce carbon emissions. It also seeks to make the forest management plan climate e adaptation- friendly, and implement REDD+ policies.

The Government has announced a forest decade for 2014-2023, with a theme: 'one house one tree, one village one forest and one town several parks' that aims at creating new forests and tree groves in areas where forests have already been lost, in addition to managing natural forests. The forests and watersheds lying on the chain of Siwalik hills are also being managed on the basis of upstream-downstream linkages in which both the forest ecosystems in the Siwalik and the fertile cultivated land in the down south are taken into consideration as complementing to each other. Conservation and management of this area, including implementation of forests, soil and water conservation activities, is expected to greatly sequestrate carbon and could function as the carbon sink.

c.           Moving Towards Environmentally Sustainable Transport System

Promotion of public transport system and use of bicycles, introduction of fuel tax used in Kathmandu Valley for air quality improvement and further promotion of non-motorized transport would contribute to the reduction of pollution in urban areas.

d.          Promoting Climate Friendly Practices in Agriculture

Nepal is implementing farmers' schools where local varieties of crops will be promoted using local and indigenous knowledge and building on efficient technologies. Similarly, efforts are underway to develop flood and drought-resistant crop varieties to cope with climate change impacts. Nepal with its Agriculture Development Strategy will gradually move towards commercial agriculture considering climate change vulnerabilities.

e.          Waste Management and Air Pollution Control

Nepal promotes the generation of energy from waste, by converting and managing waste  and minimizing the release of methane.

f.            Building Codes

Nepal in its drive for reconstruction in the post-earthquake situation will strive to promote greener, smarter and better homes as guided by the National Reconstruction Authority. The building code has provisioned for at least two trees in home garden, and rainwater  harvesting and solar light in urban homes.

C.      NEPAL'S INDC

Nepal, a land-locked mountainous country, faces challenges of reducing poverty and addressing people's basic needs. With the increasing adverse visible impacts of climate change and recent earthquake, Nepal is continuously  facing  additional  burden  from  climate change and urgently requires huge investments in adapting and building resilience to climate change in order to protect its people, property and natural resources. It is, therefore, imperative for Nepal to tackle the impact of poverty and climate change simultaneously to achieve Sustainable Development Goals.

Moreover, the current energy mix of the country shows that most of Nepal’s energy is dependent on biomass followed by fossil fuels. The residential sector consumes most of the energy. Nepal has to diversify its energy mix and energy consumption patterns to more renewable and other economically productive sectors. However, given its current economic situation, Nepal will need technical and financial supports from development partners to provide relevant technologies, and build its capacity to be cleaner and greener while flourishing as one of the top tourism destinations in the world. In view of this, Nepal follows the low-carbon development pathway while promoting climate adaptation and resilience.

The Government of Nepal realizes the importance of reducing the impact of climate change and seeks to implement climate adaptation actions to protect life and life-support systems as well as improve the livelihoods of climate vulnerable communities. The cumulative impacts of INDCs would greatly contribute to limiting the rise in temperature to safe levels and make  this planet livable. Hence, Nepal has prepared this INDC through a broad-based stakeholder consultation processes.

Nepal hereby communicates its INDC in response to the decisions of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change:

1. Nepal has initiated the process for the formulation of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). Therefore, Nepal's adaptation needs for future and in the context of post- 2020 will be envisioned through the NAPs.
2. Nepal places climate change adaptation at the centre of its development plans and policies. It aims to strengthen implementation of Environment-Friendly Local Governance (EFLG) Framework in Village Development Committees and municipalities to complement climate change adaptation, promote renewable energy technologies, and water conservation and greenery development.
3. Nepal will undertake scientific (bio-physical as well as social sciences) approaches to understand and deal with the impacts of climate change in mountains, hills and low- land ecosystems and landscapes. It will develop and implement adaptation strategies for climate change affected sectors.
4. Nepal will study and understand further loss and damage associated with climate change   impacts with the support from   scientific   and   academic communities.
5. Nepal plans to formulate the Low Carbon Economic Development Strategy that will envision country's future plan to promote economic development  through  low carbon emission with particular focus on: (i) energy; (ii) agriculture and livestock; (iii) forests; (iv) industry; (v) human settlements and wastes; (vi) transport; and vii) commercial sectors.
6. By 2050, Nepal will achieve 80% electrification through renewable energy sources having appropriate energy mix. Nepal will also reduce its dependency on fossil fuels  by 50%.
7. Nepal aims to achieve the following target under NRREP, reducing its dependency on biomass and making it more efficient.

1. Nepal will develop its electrical (hydro-powered) rail network by 2040 to support  mass transportation of goods and public commuting.
2. Nepal will maintain 40% of the total area of the  country  under  forest  cover and forest productivity and products will be increased through sustainable management  of forests. Emphasis will equally be given to enhance carbon sequestration and forest carbon storage and improve forest governance.
3. By 2025, Nepal will strive to decrease the rate of air pollution through proper monitoring of sources of air pollutants like wastes, old and unmaintained vehicles, and industries.