Bangladesh’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

1. National context

Bangladesh is a highly climate vulnerable country whose emissions are less than 0.35% of global emissions1. Without ambitious action to limit greenhouse gases internationally, the future costs of adapting to climate change will be much higher than they are today. If the world fails to take ambitious action, the costs to Bangladesh of climate change could amount to an annual loss of 2% of GDP by 2050 and 9.4% of GDP by 21002. Bangladesh therefore wants to play its part in the global collective action to reduce future emissions as part of a robust and ambitious international agreement.

Consequently, Bangladesh is adopting a two-fold strategy against climate change. The main focus of Bangladesh’s activities is on increasing our resilience to the impacts of climate change – which are already affecting the livelihoods of much of our population and will continue to do so in the future. For example, extreme temperatures, erratic rainfall, floods, drought, tropical cyclones, rising sea levels, tidal surges, salinity intrusion and ocean acidification are causing serious negative impacts on the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in Bangladesh, and are gradually offsetting the remarkable socio-economic development gained over the past 30 years, as well as jeopardising future economic growth. However at the same time, Bangladesh is also working to achieve lower- carbon as well as more resilient development. With this in mind, this INDC aims to put forth mitigation actions that Bangladesh can take to tackle its growing emissions and to play its role in global efforts to limit temperature rise to two degrees or preferably 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

With respect to Bangladesh’s contribution to global efforts to counter climate change, this INDC sets out a number of mitigation actions that will help limit the country’s GHG emissions. These mitigation actions will play a key role in realising the move to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy and to becoming a middle-income country by 2021 whilst ensuring that it will not cross the average per capita emissions of the developing world. The INDC includes both unconditional and conditional emissions reduction goals for the power, transport, and industry sectors, alongside further mitigation actions in other sectors, which Bangladesh intends to carry out. Bangladesh intends to implement its conditional emissions reduction goal subject to appropriate international support in the form of finance, investment, technology development and transfer, and capacity building. The foundation of this INDC is Bangladesh’s existing strategies and plans, in particular the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP), Renewable Energy Policy 2008, the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Master Plan (E&CC Master Plan), the forthcoming National Adaptation Plan, the National Sustainable Development Strategy, the Perspective Plan (Vision 2021) and the Sixth (and forthcoming seventh) Five Year Plan, the National Disaster Management Plan and the Disaster Management Act. In addition, it incorporates the outcome of further analysis and consultation to enhance our existing plans, and to analyse future GHG emissions trends and mitigation and adaptation options.

The INDC of Bangladesh consists of the following elements:

Y  Mitigation contribution:

• An unconditional contribution to reduce GHG emissions by 5% from Business as Usual (BAU) levels by 2030 in the power, transport and industry sectors, based on existing resources.

1Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 2.0. (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 2014)". World Resources Institute

2http://www.adb.org/news/bangladesh-could-see-climate-change-losses-reach-over-9-gdp-report

• A conditional 15% reduction in GHG emissions from BAU levels by 2030 in the power, transport, and industry sectors, subject to appropriate international support in the form of finance, investment, technology development and transfer, and capacity building.
• A number of further mitigation actions in other sectors which it intends to achieve subject to the provision of additional international resources.

Y  Adaptation component:

• An outline of what Bangladesh has already done on adaptation and what the next steps are, including the long-term vision for adaptation in Bangladesh and synergies with mitigation measures.

Y  INDC implementation:

• Proposals for governance and coordination of INDC implementation and an outline of key next steps.

Y   Support for INDC implementation:

• A qualitative description of Bangladesh’s support needs and an outline of plans to further quantify this, along with some examples of indicative costs of taking action on mitigation and adaptation.

2.       Mitigation

• “Business as usual” emissions

As part of the process of preparing this INDC, Bangladesh has updated its projections of future greenhouse gas emissions including the development of a “Business As Usual” (BAU) scenario and analysis of mitigation potential in three key sectors. Emissions in the “Land use, land-use change and forestry” (LULUCF) sector were not modelled due to difficulties in obtaining the necessary data. Further details of the analysis will be published on the Ministry of Environment and Forests’ website.

•             Mitigation contribution

Bangladesh’s mitigation contribution covers the power, transport and industry sectors. Under a BAU scenario, GHG emissions in Bangladesh in these sectors are expected to represent 69% of total emissions by 2030 (excluding LULUCF), an increase of 264% by 2030, from 64 MtCO2e in 2011 to 234 MtCO2e in 2030.

The contribution Bangladesh is willing to make is set out below.

Table 1: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions – Mitigation

These contributions are illustrated graphically below.

Table 2: Projected emissions reductions in the power, transport and industry (energy) by 2030

This contribution is based on analysis carried out throughout 2015 using the best available data. However data quality and availability is an issue in Bangladesh. If new and more robust data comes to light in the future, or if assumptions change (e.g. projections of population or economic growth) the Government will update its analysis accordingly. This will be coordinated with the next update of the BCCSAP and also embedded within the National Communication and Biennial Update Report reporting cycle.

•             Mitigation actions

This section sets out some of the mitigation actions that the Government of Bangladesh is currently implementing and examples of the kinds of measures that could be implemented in the future to meet the contributions set out in section 2.2 above.

2.3.1.             Mitigation objectives

Bangladesh’s  strategy  on  mitigation  is  set  out  in  the  BBCSAP.  This  sets  out  7  programmes  on

mitigation:

2.3.2.       Existing mitigation actions

Bangladesh already has a number of activities and targets that are driving action to reduce GHG emissions, and that will help it meet the unconditional contribution set out in section 2.2, including:

• A target to reduce energy intensity (per GDP) by 20% by 2030 compared to 2013 levels (E&CC Master Plan)
• An  Energy  Management  Programme,  including  establishment  of  Energy  Management Systems and energy audits for industry by accredited energy auditors
• An Energy Efficiency labelling programme to promote sales of high efficiency products in the market
  • Energy Efficiency measures for buildings, such as heat insulation and cooling measures, and a revised code on energy efficiency of new buildings
  • The Solar Homes Programme, providing off-grid electricity access to rural areas
    • A target to deliver 5% of energy from renewable sources by 2015, and 10% by 2020 (2008 Renewable Energy Policy)
    • More than 1.5 million Improved Cook Stoves (ICS) and 4.0 million Solar Home Systems have already been distributed across the country
    • Improving kiln efficiency in the brick making industry, composting of organic waste  and waste biomass-based thermal energy generation
    • Construction of Combined Cycle Power Plant (CCPP) by the Government of Bangladesh and utilities companies
    • Under the Solar roof-top program around 14 MW of solar has been installed on the vacant roof-tops of Government and private buildings
    • The country has set aggressive target to scale up the potentials of Solar Irrigation Pumps, Solar mini and nano grids to address the energy access issue of off-grid population

2.3.3.        Additional mitigation actions in power, industry and transport

Bangladesh will also need to implement additional mitigation actions in order to meet the conditional contribution set out in section 2.2. Examples of these are set out in Table 4. More analysis will be taken in future to consider these options in more detail, based on the availability of funding support and internal capability, including as part of a proposed INDC implementation roadmap (see section 4), before decisions are taken.

Table 4: Possible mitigation actions to deliver the conditional contribution

2.3.4.       Additional mitigation actions in other sectors

As explained above, sectors other than power, transport, and industry were not included in the quantified contributions as a robust data-set is not as readily available for these other sectors, making quantification of mitigation potential more challenging. Yet, Bangladesh will carry out more work in future, under the umbrella of the BCCSAP, to improve analysis in other sectors. And Bangladesh  will  also  continue  to  consider  mitigation  actions  in  these  sectors,  despite  their

contribution currently not being quantified in the INDC. Examples of potential measures in other sectors are set out below:

Table 5: Possible conditional action-based contributions

2.4.             Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding

This section provides more detail on the contributions set out in section 2.2 and the analysis that was carried out to inform them.

Table 6: Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding

2.5.             Fair and ambitious goal

Bangladesh is a Least Developed Country  (LDC) whose emissions are less than 0.35% of global emissions. However, Bangladesh recognises that in order to meet the 2 degrees objective all countries will need to undertake mitigation in line with the IPCC conclusion that meeting 2 degrees requires global reductions to reduce by 40 to 70% global anthropogenic GHG emissions reductions by 2050 compared to 2010. Bangladesh’s approach is driven by the long-term goal announced by its Prime Minister that its per capita GHG emissions will not exceed the average for developing countries. Therefore, Bangladesh’s approach focuses on putting itself on a pathway which will avoid an increase of emissions per capita beyond this level, while pursuing national development goals.

Despite its current status as a LDC and its currently small share of past and current global GHGs, Bangladesh is still putting forward actions which will allow the country to embark on a low carbon development pathway, keeping in mind the global climate change agenda. This INDC represents the first time that Bangladesh has made an international undertaking to take action on mitigation and therefore fulfils the requirements of the Lima Call for Climate Action to go beyond existing efforts. The actions needed to deliver on these commitments will require international support in the form of finance, technology transfer and capacity building. Bangladesh will also provide a relevant contribution with regards to national financial resources, staff time and strong integration of development and mitigation activities.

In selecting the actions set out above, Bangladesh has prioritised those which fit with the growth priorities set out in our national development plans. In addition, Bangladesh has captured the synergies between mitigation and adaptation, not only by prioritising those adaptation activities with significant mitigation co-benefits, but also by seeking to minimise the carbon footprint of adaptation portfolio as a whole. The INDC contains a mix of measures that have already been taken forward under its own resources, thus demonstrating that Bangladesh is not content to wait for international support to take action on climate change.

3.       Adaptation

3.1    Countrysituation on vulnerability

Bangladesh, one of the world’s most disaster-prone climate vulnerable countries, has faced dozens of major disasters over its short history as a nation. Located on the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh is particularly susceptible to seasonal cyclones, acting as a funnel for heavy precipitation from the Indian Ocean and creating extreme weather events. The country sits on the flood plain of several major rivers, which drain from the mountainous regions of the Himalayas, making seasonal flooding another hazard often coinciding with the cyclone season. Current research and studies suggest that flood, tropical cyclones, storm surge and drought are likely to be more frequent and severe in the years to come. The Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI-2011) calculated the vulnerability of 170 countries to the impacts of climate change over the next 30 years3, which reveals that Bangladesh is the most vulnerable country to climate change.

Climate change adaptation is a key priority and the country has already undertaken initiatives to mainstream adaptation into national development such as in the water, health, forestry, agriculture and more prominently in the infrastructure sectors. Bangladesh is already experiencing a host of climate impacts, including floods, storm surges, drought and river bank erosion. For example, floods in 2007 inundated 32,000 sq. km, leading to over 85,000 houses being destroyed and almost 1 million damaged, with approximately 1.2 million acres of crops destroyed or partially damaged, 649 deaths and estimated damage over $1 billion. Climate change will drastically hamper economic growth of the country. For instance, the Asian Development Bank estimated that Bangladesh may experience a 2% GDP annual loss by 2050 because of climate change.

3.2    Adaptation goal

The primary goal for adaptation is to protect the population, enhance their adaptive capacity and livelihood options, and to protect the overall development of the country in its stride for economic progress and wellbeing of the people.

3.3    Adaptation action – past and present

Over the last three decades, the Government of Bangladesh has invested over $10 billion  (at constant 2007 prices) to make the country more climate resilient and less vulnerable to natural disasters. Flood management embankments, coastal polders and cyclone shelters have been built, and important lessons learnt on how to implement such projects successfully in the dynamic hydrological conditions of Bangladesh and with active participation of communities.

To enhance climate change adaptation activities in all key policies and sectors, Bangladesh has recently established two innovative funds: the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF) from the Government’s own budget and the Bangladesh Climate Change Resilient Fund (BCCRF) with the support of development partners. Bangladesh submitted the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) in 2005 (revised in 2009) and prepared a climate change action plan (the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan in 2009).

3.4    Expectations for future – near term plans and action

Considering the vulnerabilities, the government has identified the following areas of interventions to address adverse impacts of climate change:

3http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi.html

Based on the above-mentioned areas the following broad adaptation actions are prioritized for the country:

Bangladesh has already developed considerable infrastructure and capability to address these climate change-induced vulnerabilities through disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. In order to accelerate the present domestic initiatives to adapt to climate change and secure lives and livelihoods of people, the Government has allocated nearly $ 400 million to Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF). As of June 2015 BCCTF has funded over 236 projects of which 41 have already been implemented. The projects undertaken so far from BCCTF include:

Y   Construction of embankments and river bank protective works

Y   Building cyclone resilient houses, excavation /re-excavation of canals

Y   Construction of water control infrastructures including regulators/sluice gates

Y   Waste management and drainage infrastructure

Y   Introduction and dissemination of stress tolerant crop varieties and seeds, afforestation

Y   Installation of solar panels.

Please see details on the country’s achievement in the field of climate change adaptation in Annex 1

A significant number of development programmes are implemented under the revenue budget, and the allocation for BCCTF also comes from the revenue budget (FY-2013/14), so the total allocation to development activities amounts to about 32 percent of the national budget. An updated BCCTF project list is provided on the Fund’s website4.

A good number of climate change adaptation projects have been further developed for implementation by different ministries and departments like Local Government Engineering Department (LGED), Water Development Board, Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), Ministry of Disaster Management, Road and Transport Highways Division, Ministry of Road Transport and Bridges. Please see the detailed project list in Annex 1.

4http://www.bcct.gov.bd/images/180814/Updated%20Project%20List%2017.11.pdf

Furthermore, Bangladesh has prepared a roadmap towards formulating a comprehensive National Adaptation plan (NAP) with a view to reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change by building adaptive capacity and resilience. The NAP is expected to facilitate the integration of climate change adaptation into relevant new and existing policies, programmes and activities in a coherent manner, in particular development planning processes and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at different levels, as appropriate.

Bangladesh is considered one of the leading countries in managing disasters, and many good lessons and practices gathered over the years are being replicated in the context of CCA.

3.5    Barriers and needs

Bangladesh acknowledges that climate change action requires a holistic approach and further acknowledges that many activities will deliver both adaptation and mitigation benefits. For example, Bangladesh’s national afforestation programme has led to significant afforestation in newly accreted lands along the coast in the Bay of Bengal as well as reforestation in the adjacent denuded hills. About 195,000 hectares of mangrove plantations have been raised so far and these new plantations are also playing an important role in carbon sequestration. More analysis needs to be carried out on future GHG emissions and mitigation options for the LULUCF sector and when this is done, further consideration will be given to mitigation-adaptation synergies in this sector.

Needless to mention, domestic/national initiatives to address climate change vulnerabilities from our own resources are far from inadequate compared to what is required to address vulnerabilities of 160 million of the national population. Resources are required from international mechanisms to ensure climate resilient development of the country. This will assist in developing a comprehensive programme for adaptation and the NAP will form the core element of this progamme.

Bangladesh acknowledges that monitoring and evaluation of adaptation policies and programmes is crucial to ensure that resources are well utilized to increase the overall resilience of our people. The objective is to mainstream adaptation initiatives in a National Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system that is being planned.

4.       INDC development and implementation

This INDC has been prepared through consultation and dialogue with the Government’s Advisory and Technical Committees, which include a range of stakeholders including line ministries, Planning Commission, technical departments, professionals, experts, and the private sector.

With obvious reason the INDC implementation will be carried forward under the framework of updated and meaningful implementation of the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) and other key policies/plans. The BCCSAP is a ten-year programme running from 2009 to 2018, to build the capacity and resilience of the country to meet the challenge of climate change. An INDC implementation roadmap will be produced in 2016. This will review the current situation with respect to implementation of the BCCSAP, identify gaps and support needs, review barriers to implementation and present proposals for INDC implementation next steps.

Specific activities to be carried out in the development of the INDC implementation  roadmap include:

• List potential mitigation interventions that could be studied in more detail and developed into NAMAs, along with recommendations on possible delivery levers (e.g. incentives, standards, fiscal levers etc).
• Carry out a review of Bangladesh’s current climate finance landscape, support needs and the international funding landscape, along with an assessment of climate finance readiness and gaps. Produce recommendations on an appropriate climate finance strategy for Bangladesh.
• Carry out a gap analysis of existing data sharing and reporting structures and processes and make initial recommendations on the appropriate form and structure of a national MRV system.
• Integration of the Climate Fiscal Framework (CFF) in the national planning and budgeting process to determine and disburse suitable yearly allocation  for  the implementation  of mitigations and adaptation projects/programmes in this stipulated time-frame.
• Carry out a gap analysis of existing institutional framework and recommend institutional strengthening for effective access of international climate finances including Green Climate Fund
• Make recommendations on appropriate institutional structures for INDC implementation and coordination.
• Set out a clear roadmap and timetable for actions across the key elements of INDC implementation, grouping into short, medium and long-term actions.

INDC implementation will be taken forward by existing governance arrangements under the BCCSAP, with coordination being managed by the climate change secretariat in the Ministry of Environment and Forests, reporting to the Advisory Committee and the National Environment Committee (chaired by the Prime Minister). Specific implementation activities will be carried out by the appropriate line ministries and agencies with fiscal support under the fiscal framework of the Government. A comprehensive and robust INDC  implementation  framework will  be developed  in  line with the existing CFF and other climate change related bodies.

5.       Support for INDC implementation

Significant resources will be needed to support the implementation of Bangladesh’s INDC, including finance, technology transfer and capacity building support. This section gives examples of the kinds of costs facing Bangladesh, both for adaptation and mitigation, and a brief summary of the existing institutional frameworks on climate finance.

•         Adaptation costs

Being amongst the countries worst affected by climate change, much of the required resource will be focused on adaptation and improving climate resilience. The BCCSAP sets out the type of investments needed to address climate impacts, early warning systems, improved irrigation and water management, improved operation and maintenance and upgrading of coastal embankments and polders and upgrading of flood protection embankments/drainage systems5.

It was estimated by the World Bank6 in 2010 that by 2050, adaptation costs of tropical cyclones and storm surges will be $55167 million and the annual recurrent cost will be $112 million, whereas for inland monsoon flooding the cost will be $2671 million and the annual recurrent cost will be $54 million. Just taking these two sectors into consideration, the cost is estimated to be around $6.59 billion by 2030.

Bangladesh has already implemented some key adaptation activities as urgent and immediate needs of the country. Implementation of identified adaptation measures are very critical to increase the resilience of the country to climate change. It was estimated that Bangladesh will need to invest $40

5 See box 7 of the BCCSAP.

6 World Bank. 2010. Main report. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2010/01/16420806/bangladesh- economic-adaptation-climate-change-vol-1-2-main-report

7 $ signifies USD throughout the document

billion from 2015 to 2030 in order to implement identified adaptation measures (detail in section 3) to address adverse impacts of climate change. This figure includes the actions included in the NAPA, BCCSAP as well as new adaptation  needs  for the period 2015-2030 based on  the current NAP Roadmap and the 7th Five Year Plan. Some examples of specific adaptation-related costs are set out below:

Table 7: Estimated costs of key adaptation measures

• Mitigation costs

Further work will be needed to assess the scale and scope of investment needs for mitigation activities (see section 4 on INDC implementation). But examples of the kinds of investment required (2011-2030) to implement key mitigation measures are set out below:

Table 8: Estimated costs of key mitigation measures

This is expected to ensure better synergy among financing intermediaries to leverage investments that are greater than the sum of their parts. Effective access to international climate finances is critical for implementation of the Bangladesh INDC to address adverse impacts of climate change for sustaining economic growth and thereby aiding to achieve middle-income country status by 2021.